MEMPREDIKSI PERUSAHAAN YANG BERPOTENSI MENGALAMI MASALAH KEUANGAN DENGAN MODEL ALTMAN, SPRINGATE DAN ZMIJEWSKI (Studi pada Perusahaan Ritel yang Terdaftar di BEI Periode Tahun 2012-2016)
Abstract
Penjualan ritel nasional pada periode Januari-Juni 2017 mengalami perlambatan dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya (YoY). Data ritel Nielsen menunjukkan bahwa penjualan ritel nasional di semester I tahun ini hanya tumbuh 3,7 persen dari 10,2 persen. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui model prediksi Financial Distress yang paling sesuai untuk penerapannya pada perusahaan ritel di Indonesia. Studi ini membandingkan tiga model prediksi marabahaya keuangan yaitu model Altman, Springate dan Zmijewski dengan menganalisis keakuratan masing-masing model. Model dengan akurasi tertinggi
digunakan untuk memprediksi perusahaan ritel yang akan mengalami kesulitan keuangan di masa depan.
Data penelitian diambil dari laporan keuangan perusahaan ritel yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) untuk periode 2012-2016. Sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 12 perusahaan dengan teknik purposive sampling. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi logistik.
Hasilnya menunjukkan jika model Altman dan Zmijewski dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi financial distress pada perusahaan ritel. Model yang paling akurat adalah model Zmijewski. Pada akhir model penelitian Zmijewski digunakan untuk memprediksi 12 perusahaan ritel yang terdaftar pada periode BEI 2016. Hasil prediksi menunjukkan bahwa tiga perusahaan diprediksi mengalami kesulitan keuangan di masa depan.
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